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Prediction for CME (2022-07-16T17:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-16T17:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20865/-1
CME Note: Visible in the WNW in STEREO A COR2, no SOHO LASCO direct imagery available during real-time analysis. May possibly be associated with dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning around 2022-07-16T16:00Z and filament eruption faintly visible in SDO AIA 304 at the same time. This appears to have the same trigger as the filament eruption near S30W50, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2022-07-16T16:30Z. Possibly deflected NE due to coronal hole to the SW (centered near S15W35).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-19T15:36Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-07-17 00:17
 - Time at C2: 2022-07-16 17:09
 - Radial speed: 518.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: N18W15
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 561.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-07-19 15:36 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.45 hours)
Lead Time: 45.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-07-17T18:26Z
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